There's a great article at Slate.com (here) that describes those all-too-complicated derivatives in terms we can all understand: gambling, baby, yeah! Turns out somebody smarter than me looked at what the banks were doing, figured out a mathematical probability of the investment banks making money versus total financial meltdown and came to the conclusion that what the Wall Street folks were doing was essentially a game of double-or-nothing. See, it turns out that, statistically, higher risk means a chance of higher reward, whereas lower risk leads to lower rewards. What the Wall Street folks were doing was concentrating risk in a way that makes it highly unlikely that their bets would fail, but, in the event that they did fail, well, armageddon. I don't really have much to add to the article, so I just suggest you read it and discuss.
Showing posts with label Martingale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martingale. Show all posts
Friday, October 03, 2008
You've Got to Know When to Hold 'em
There's a great article at Slate.com (here) that describes those all-too-complicated derivatives in terms we can all understand: gambling, baby, yeah! Turns out somebody smarter than me looked at what the banks were doing, figured out a mathematical probability of the investment banks making money versus total financial meltdown and came to the conclusion that what the Wall Street folks were doing was essentially a game of double-or-nothing. See, it turns out that, statistically, higher risk means a chance of higher reward, whereas lower risk leads to lower rewards. What the Wall Street folks were doing was concentrating risk in a way that makes it highly unlikely that their bets would fail, but, in the event that they did fail, well, armageddon. I don't really have much to add to the article, so I just suggest you read it and discuss.
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